CausalSmith · seminar slides
Separating Latent-Source Arrows with Cumulants
With a fixed number of middle source slots and an axis normalization, higher-order population cumulants generically separate the two bivariate latent linear non-Gaussian arrow conventions.
slides for Generic Separation of Axis-Normalized Latent-Source Representations by Higher-Order Cumulants
Overview
- We study a bivariate latent linear non-Gaussian model with m middle source slots.
- The maintained input is an axis-normalized representation class for X→Y and Y→X.
- The observable object is the truncated joint cumulant vector through order L.
- The question is whether the same cumulants can arise from the opposite arrow convention.
- The main answer: generically, order 2m+2 recovers the loading support and excludes the opposite fiber.
- For m≥3, generic real opposite-fiber exclusion already holds at order 2m+1.
Motivation
- In Gaussian linear models, covariance information is symmetric in ways that often leave direction unresolved.
- Non-Gaussianity supplies higher-order structure that can break that symmetry.
- LiNGAM uses this asymmetry under linear non-Gaussian disturbances; latent sources make the direction problem harder.
- We ask what the population cumulants alone establish once the number of source slots and axis convention are fixed.
- This is a representation-level identification question for a structured econometric model class.
Running Example
- Think of X and Y as two economic outcomes linked by one direct channel and several latent shocks.
- A forward representation assigns one direct X→Y loading, one fixed vertical-axis source, and m middle source slots.
- A reverse representation assigns the symmetric Y→X convention.
- The econometric question is whether the observed higher-order cumulants support both recursive specifications.
- The source count m is treated as a maintained modeling input.
Related Literature
- Pearl (2009), Spirtes et al. (2001), Peters et al. (2017), and Richardson and Spirtes (2002) give the structural and graphical background.
- Shimizu et al. (2006) connect linear non-Gaussian structure to causal discovery through LiNGAM.
- Hoyer et al. (2008) and Salehkaleybar et al. (2020) study latent-variable LiNGAM settings.
- Brillinger (1969), McCullagh (1987), Comon and Mourrain (1996), and Landsberg (2012) supply the cumulant and binary-form tools.
- Chen et al. (2025) use higher-order cumulants for direction under latent confounding.
- We characterize the generic opposite-fiber geometry for the fixed-source, axis-normalized representation class.
Setup
- There are m+2 latent source slots S0,…,Sm+1.
- The m middle slots have finite slopes and can load on both observed coordinates.
- The two remaining slots are fixed by the axis normalization.
- Sources are centered, mutually independent, non-Gaussian, and have finite moments through the retained order.
- Independence makes cumulants add across source slots.
- Non-Gaussianity makes higher-order cumulants informative beyond covariance.
The latent source variables S0,…,Sm+1 are mutually independent with respect to μ: S0⊥⋯⊥Sm+1.
Axis Conventions
- In the forward convention, the direct loading has slope γ, the middle slopes are ρ1,…,ρm, and the vertical-axis source is fixed.
- In the reverse convention, the direct loading has slope δ, the middle slopes are σ1,…,σm, and the horizontal-axis source is fixed.
- Genericity means distinct finite slopes, nonzero direct slope, and nonzero retained source cumulants.
- In the running example, this rules out coincident shock directions and a zero direct channel.
With forward loading vectors u0=(1,γ), uj=(1,ρj) for 1≤j≤m, and um+1=(0,1), the bivariate observed outcome vector admits the forward latent linear representation (X,Y)⊤=j=0∑m+1ujSj.
With reverse loading vectors v0=(1,0), vj=(σj,1) for 1≤j≤m, and vm+1=(δ,1), the bivariate observed outcome vector admits the reverse latent linear representation (X,Y)⊤=j=0∑m+1vjSj.
Cumulant Data
- TL(P), the truncated cumulant vector, collects joint cumulants of X and Y from orders 2 through L.
- Each source contributes its order-r cumulant weight times a monomial in its loading vector.
- The forward and reverse cumulant maps encode these contributions as polynomial maps.
- A fiber is the set of parameters that produce the same truncated cumulant vector.
- Direction separation means the opposite-arrow fiber is empty.
Key Idea
- The cumulant blocks behave like a simultaneous decomposition of binary forms.
- At the apolar order 2m+2, the equations recover the unordered set of loading directions.
- The recovered support contains the fixed axis in a way determined by the arrow convention.
- For generic parameters, the opposite convention would require the incompatible fixed-axis pattern.
- This turns higher-order cumulants into a population separation device for the two representation fibers.
Main Result I
informal · Theorem T-1 At order 2m+2, generic parameters have their unordered loading-slope support recovered and their full opposite-arrow cumulant fiber empty.
- The result applies on relatively Zariski-open dense loci.
- These loci contain real feasible neighborhoods, so the algebraic statement has real model points.
- In the running example, the higher-order cumulants recover the shock-loading directions needed to rule out the competing recursive axis convention.
Let m≥1, put n=m+2 and K=2m+2=2n−2. Use the support-annihilator and differential-operator conventions of Definition. There exist sets Umright⊆Θm,Kright,∘,Umleft⊆Θm,Kleft,∘ such that:
- (Generic loci.) Each of Umright and Umleft is relatively Zariski open and relatively Zariski dense in the corresponding complex parameter space Θm,Kright or Θm,Kleft of Definition P-3, and is contained in the corresponding generic parameter locus of Definition P-7.
- (Open neighborhoods meeting feasibility.) There are Euclidean-open sets Oright,Oleft of real parameter space such that Oright∩Fm,Kright=∅,Oleft∩Fm,Kleft=∅, where the feasible regions are those of Definition P-11; use the coordinatewise-complexification convention of Definition. Then (Oright∩Fm,Kright)C⊆Umright,(Oleft∩Fm,Kleft)C⊆Umleft.
- (Forward recovery and separation.) For every θ∈Umright, Rm,Kleft(Φm,Kright(θ))=∅. Moreover, there is a nonzero squarefree polynomial Q∈C[z] such that Q(0)=0 and the multiset of roots of Q is {γ,ρ1,…,ρm}. Every generic forward parameter θ′′ satisfying Φm,Kright(θ′′)=Φm,Kright(θ) has the same multiset {γ,ρ1,…,ρm}. If fr(x,y)=a=0∑r(ar)tr,axr−aya,t=Φm,Kright(θ), let D be the forward loading-direction support. Then QD=0,x∣QD,y∤QD, and, for every homogeneous binary form q of degree n, [q(∂)fn+k=0 for every 0≤k≤m]⟺∃c∈C: q=cQD.
- (Reverse recovery and separation.) For every η∈Umleft, Rm,Kright(Φm,Kleft(η))=∅. Moreover, there is a nonzero squarefree polynomial Q∈C[z] such that Q(0)=0 and the multiset of roots of Q is {δ,σ1,…,σm}. Every generic reverse parameter η′′ satisfying Φm,Kleft(η′′)=Φm,Kleft(η) has the same multiset {δ,σ1,…,σm}. If fr(x,y)=a=0∑r(ar)tr,axr−aya,t=Φm,Kleft(η), let D be the reverse loading-direction support. Then QD=0,y∣QD,x∤QD, and, for every homogeneous binary form q of degree n, [q(∂)fn+k=0 for every 0≤k≤m]⟺∃c∈C: q=cQD.
Main Result II
informal · Theorem T-2 At order 2m+2, generic opposite-arrow fibers are empty, while same-arrow fibers retain the stated direct-slot versus middle-slot ambiguity.
- The arrow is separated at the representation level.
- The unordered loading-slope multiset is pinned down.
- Same-arrow parametrization still permits ambiguity beyond admissible middle-source relabelling.
- For m≥2, the same-arrow fiber has exact relative Zariski dimension 2m(m−1).
For every m∈N with m≥1, set K=2m+2. There exist complex loci Umright⊆Θm,Kright,∘ and Umleft⊆Θm,Kleft,∘, with the generic loci as in Definition P-7, such that:
- (Relative genericity.) Each of Umright and Umleft is relatively Zariski open and relatively Zariski dense in the parameter spaces Θm,Kright and Θm,Kleft of Definition P-4 and Definition P-5, respectively.
- (Real incidence.) There is a Euclidean-open set of real forward parameters whose intersection with Fm,Kright from Definition P-11 is nonempty, and every parameter in this intersection has coordinatewise complexification contained in Umright. Likewise, there is a Euclidean-open set of real reverse parameters whose intersection with Fm,Kleft is nonempty, and every parameter in this intersection has coordinatewise complexification contained in Umleft.
- (Forward generic fibers.) For every θ=(γ,ρ,c)∈Umright, every forward parameter in the forward fiber Rm,Kright(Φm,Kright(θ)) of Definition P-8 and Definition P-4 has the same unordered loading-slope multiset {γ,ρ1,…,ρm} as θ. The opposite-arrow fiber Rm,Kleft(Φm,Kright(θ)) of Definition P-8 (formed with the reverse map of Definition P-5) is empty. For every latent index i=1,…,m, there is a generic forward parameter θ′∈Θm,Kright,∘ obtained by swapping the full pairs (γ,(c0r)r=2K) and (ρi,(cir)r=2K), leaving every other coordinate fixed, such that Φm,Kright(θ′)=Φm,Kright(θ), but θ′ is not in the admissible Gm-orbit of θ from Definition P-9. If m≥2, this forward fiber has exact relative Zariski dimension 2m(m−1).
- (Reverse generic fibers.) For every η=(δ,σ,d)∈Umleft, every reverse parameter in the reverse fiber Rm,Kleft(Φm,Kleft(η)) has the same unordered loading-slope multiset {δ,σ1,…,σm} as η. The opposite-arrow fiber Rm,Kright(Φm,Kleft(η)) is empty. For every latent index i=1,…,m, there is a generic reverse parameter η′∈Θm,Kleft,∘ obtained by swapping the full pairs (δ,(dm+1,r)r=2K) and (σi,(dir)r=2K), leaving every other coordinate fixed, such that Φm,Kleft(η′)=Φm,Kleft(η), but η′ is not in the admissible Gm-orbit of η from Definition P-9. If m≥2, this reverse fiber has exact relative Zariski dimension 2m(m−1).
Exceptional Locus
informal · Theorem T-3 At order 2m+2, the closure of cumulant vectors compatible with both arrow conventions has codimension exactly 1 in each arrow image variety.
- The compatibility set is a property of the truncated cumulant vector.
- Its preimages are exactly the generic same-arrow parameters whose cumulants retain a full opposite-arrow representation.
- For m=1 and m=2, the theorem records explicit incidence systems.
- For m≥2, the compatibility geometry has codimension one rather than codimension m.
For every m≥1, at K=2m+2, let Em, Hmright, and Hmleft be as in Definition P-10, and let Cm,Kright and Cm,Kleft be as in Definition P-6. Then:
- (Codimension.) The exceptional closure Em has codimension exactly 1 in each of Cm,Kright and Cm,Kleft. Moreover, if m≥2, then Em does not have codimension m in either Cm,Kright or Cm,Kleft.
- (Forward preimage.) For every θ∈Θm,Kright, θ∈Hmright⟺θ∈Θm,Kright,∘ and Rm,Kleft(Φm,Kright(θ))=∅.
- (Reverse preimage.) For every η∈Θm,Kleft, η∈Hmleft⟺η∈Θm,Kleft,∘ and Rm,Kright(Φm,Kleft(η))=∅.
- (Low-dimensional specializations.) If m=1, then E1={t: ∃p satisfying the system A1, Φ1,4right(pright)=t}. If m=2, then E2={t: ∃p satisfying the system A2, Φ2,6right(pright)=t}, where A1,A2 are the compatibility instances of Definition P-16.
Information Order
informal · Theorem T-4 For m≥3, order 2m+1 is sufficient for generic real exclusion of the opposite arrow, so K⋆(m)≤2m+1.
- The apolar theorem uses order 2m+2 to recover loading support.
- The real separation target is weaker: it asks only whether the opposite real feasible fiber is empty.
- For m≥3, generic real separation reaches that target one order earlier.
- Thus 2m+1 is enough for generic real arrow separation, while 2m+2 supports loading-support recovery.
The theorem-local symbols Eright and Eleft below are real parameter-space exceptional subsets and are unrelated to the cumulant-space compatibility locus Em. For every m∈N with 3≤m, at truncation order L=2m+1:
- (Forward generic separation.) There is a proper real algebraic subset of the real forward parameter space whose complement meets Fm,Lright; choose one such subset and denote it locally in this theorem by Eright. For every θ∈Fm,Lright∖Eright there is no η∈Fm,Lleft such that Φm,Lright(θ)=Φm,Lleft(η).
- (Reverse generic separation.) There is a proper real algebraic subset of the real reverse parameter space whose complement meets Fm,Lleft; choose one such subset and denote it locally in this theorem by Eleft. For every η∈Fm,Lleft∖Eleft there is no θ∈Fm,Lright such that Φm,Lleft(η)=Φm,Lright(θ).
Consequently, for the information order K⋆(m) of Definition P-12, K⋆(m)≤2m+1andK⋆(m)=2m+2.
Proof Sketch
- First, independence converts source contributions into additive cumulant blocks.
- Second, the order-2m+2 cumulants are organized as binary forms with m+2 loading directions.
- Third, apolar equations identify the unique support-annihilator on the generic loci.
- Fourth, the recovered support reveals which fixed axis belongs to the representation.
- Finally, the opposite-arrow convention would impose the other fixed-axis pattern, giving an empty opposite fiber generically.
Compatibility Geometry
- The exceptional locus is studied by comparing simultaneous forward and reverse decompositions.
- The comparison keeps the axis slots fixed and quotients only the middle-source label symmetry.
- The resulting dimension calculation gives a single algebraic compatibility condition in each arrow image.
- For small m, we record explicit incidence systems that describe the same compatibility event.
- This explains why generic separation coexists with a codimension-one family admitting both conventions.
Limitations and Future Work
informal · Remark T-5 A future direction is a finite computable semialgebraic atlas that exactly labels real forward and reverse feasible fibers for every fixed m.
- The current results are population statements about truncated cumulants.
- The maintained inputs are the source count m and the axis-normalized representation class.
- Empirical use requires additional work on cumulant estimation, weak higher-order signal, and near-exceptional parameters.
- The finite-sample and numerical decision problems are natural next steps.
Takeaways
- Higher-order cumulants carry directional information in fixed-source latent linear non-Gaussian representations.
- At order 2m+2, the generic apolar equations recover unordered loading support and exclude the opposite arrow convention.
- The remaining same-arrow ambiguity is characterized separately from arrow separation.
- The opposite-arrow compatibility closure has codimension exactly one in each arrow image variety.
- For m≥3, generic real opposite-fiber exclusion already holds at order 2m+1.